Qatar  | عربي

Doha, 21 March 2018- QNB Group has published the Turkey Economic Insight 2017. The report examines recent developments and the outlook for the Turkish economy.

Turkey’s economy is in the midst of a strong upturn due to a USD60bn government backed credit guarantee fund (CGF), fiscal stimulus and robust external demand.

 
Real GDP growth was an estimated 6.8% in 2017 and is projected to moderate thereafter to 5.4% in 2018 and 5.3% in 2019 as some stimulus measures are partly scaled back.
 
Inflation rose to 11.9% at end-2017 reflecting oil price gains, a weaker lira (TRY) and strong domestic demand due to stimulus measures.
Inflation should gradually ease to 8.5% by end-2019 as the lira declines by less than it did in 2017 and as oil and other commodity prices are not expected to increase as much.
 
 
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We project the current account deficit to widen slightly from 5.6% of GDP in 2017 to 5.9% in 2018 and 2019 as import growth is expected to outpace exports due to strong domestic demand and higher oil prices.

 

As a result we expect the lira to weaken as well, declining from an average of 3.6 per USD in 2017 to 3.8 and 4.0 in 2018 and 2019.

Banking sector growth is expected to remain robust on the back of the high lending growth as a result of the CGF.

Asset quality will continue to improve with non-performing loans expected to decline from 2.9% in 2017 to 2.8% by 2019.

Profitability and capitalisation are expected to remain strong, the former reached a four-year high in 2017, with return on equity over 20% and the capital adequacy ratio rose to over 16% in 2017.

 
 
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Other recent QNB Economic Insight reports include China, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates and are available on the QNB Group website. QNB Group operates in 31 countries across 3 continents and its economic reports leverage its knowledge of these markets to provided added value for its clients and counterparties.
 
 
 
 
 
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: QNB Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Where an opinion is expressed, unless otherwise provided, it is that of the analyst or author only. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. The report is distributed on a complimentary basis. It may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNB Group.
 
 

 

 

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